In Austin’s cooling real estate landscape, supply has surged, buyer demand is waning, and leverage is tilting sharply in favor of today’s buyers.

The Austin housing market, as of Friday, July 11, 2025, continues to underscore a notable imbalance between supply and demand—highlighting a shift into full buyer territory. With 17,871 active residential listings, the market is hovering just below the recent high of 18,076 set on June 27. Inventory remains significantly elevated, now 15.3% higher year-over-year and 38.2% higher when comparing the year-to-date average from January to July. This persistent increase in available listings is not being matched by demand, leading to a rise in price reductions and a sluggish absorption rate across the metro.

Price sensitivity continues to dominate, with 57.5% of all active listings showing at least one price drop. Some submarkets—like Georgetown, Round Rock, and Pflugerville—exceed 62% price reductions, revealing where pressure is mounting most. Sellers are being forced to adjust to a slower-moving market in which buyer activity has softened significantly compared to the frenzy of 2021 and 2022. As of today, the Activity Index is just 19.4%, a 14.3% decline year-over-year and one of the lowest readings we’ve seen this year. This metric reflects how few homes are going under contract relative to inventory, and it confirms that buyer urgency remains historically low.

Meanwhile, Months of Inventory (MOI) has climbed to 6.34, up 17.2% from this time last year and well above the 6-month threshold that typically signals a balanced market. The year-to-date MOI trend suggests sustained excess supply, particularly in outlying suburbs where many cities are showing double-digit MOI readings. Marble Falls, Smithville, Dale, and Lago Vista all register above 11.0 months of inventory—effectively confirming an oversupplied, high-negotiability environment in those submarkets. Even Austin proper has reached 6.02 MOI, solidly in buyer territory for the city core.

Cumulative new listings from January through July reached 31,026, a modest 1.7% decline year-over-year but still 17.5% above the long-term average. In contrast, pending contracts tell a more sobering story. Year-to-date pending listings sit at 23,944, down 14.3% compared to last year and 6.3% below average. This divergence has widened the year-to-date new-to-pending gap to 7,082 listings—meaning thousands of homes are sitting on the market longer than usual. The current new-to-pending ratio of 0.50 confirms that for every two new listings, only one is going under contract. By contrast, the 25-year historical average for this metric is 0.81, underscoring how out of sync today’s market is with typical seasonality and demand patterns.

On the pricing front, the correction continues. The average sold price is now $594,243, down 12.86% or approximately $88,000 from the May 2022 peak. The median sold price is even more telling—currently at $450,000, representing an 18.18% decline from the peak of $550,000. When we track that median sold price against the same period three years ago, it’s still down 12.62%, signaling that many homeowners who bought between 2021 and early 2022 may still be underwater or just breaking even. These price trends reaffirm that the market has not fully recovered and is unlikely to do so quickly.

Based on a 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.981%, a return to the peak median price of $548,837 would require 52 months—meaning Austin likely wouldn’t regain that price point until around October 2029. This projection assumes no further shocks and a stable appreciation curve, yet the current market velocity casts doubt on that timeline remaining intact. Sellers, particularly those with discretionary timelines, may need to price aggressively or offer concessions to attract attention in the near term.

Sales volume metrics further confirm the slower environment. There were 2,716 closed sales in July thus far, bringing the year-to-date total to 17,806. This is down 5.2% year-over-year but still 7.2% above the long-term average, meaning transaction volume is decent relative to history but sluggish compared to recent boom years. However, when viewed in relation to Austin’s population and Realtor base, the metrics become more stark. We’re seeing just 698 closings per 100,000 residents and 957 closings per 1,000 Realtors year-to-date—both well below historical norms and signaling oversaturation on the agent side, especially as listing competition intensifies.

The Sold-to-Active ratio is sitting at just 17.78%, well below the long-term average of 31.92%. This number is especially concerning from a seller’s perspective, as it illustrates how many listings are actually converting to closed sales in a given period. The Market Flow Score (MFS), a proprietary metric that gauges market fluidity, has dropped to 5.12—sharply below the historical average of 6.61—indicating a sluggish, increasingly buyer-driven market with limited momentum.

Looking at price distribution, the correction has disproportionately affected the lower quartile of the market. The bottom 25% of homes saw a 5.59% price drop year-over-year, while the top 25% declined by only 0.06%. This segmentation suggests that affordability-strapped buyers are now even more constrained, while luxury sellers have more room to hold pricing or negotiate with terms instead. Nonetheless, the $/sqft figures also reveal broad-based softness, with the bottom and top quartiles declining by 5.20% and 0.55%, respectively.

Across cities, appreciation has been uneven. Out of 30 tracked cities in the Austin metro, only 13 show positive year-over-year appreciation, while 17 have declined. Markets with faster-growing inventory and limited economic diversification—such as Manor, Jarrell, and Marble Falls—are seeing the steepest corrections. On the other hand, city centers with better infrastructure and employment access, like Austin proper and Cedar Park, are correcting more gradually.

In summary, the Austin market is not in freefall, but it is clearly in the midst of a slow-moving correction defined by excess inventory, limited buyer urgency, and increased price negotiation. For buyers, this represents an excellent window to act with leverage—provided they have stable employment and financing. For sellers, it’s a test of patience and pricing strategy. The data continues to show that overpriced listings are punished with longer market times, while properly priced homes can still sell—especially in move-in-ready condition or desirable locations. This is not a market in crisis, but it is one that demands discipline, data awareness, and realistic expectations from all parties.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for July 11, 2025.